The elections are over and with very few incidents. The Exit-polls (CNN-IBN-Hindu) have surprisingly shown a win for DMK led front. And I was led to believe there will be no anti-incumbency wave by reports in Rediff and Hindu until then. It is true-the Tamil voter keeps alternating between one of the Dravidian parties.
What has troubled me though are the voter turn-out figures released by the Election Commission. Again we have seen poor showing by urban dwellers when compared to people in suburban and rural areas. Why???, I wonder. Is it that they are indifferent to the state of affairs or do they have issues in getting time off to vote. I am not sure if Private companies are required by law to give the day off and if they did. As a recurring trend it is quite intriguing.
It is compulsory to vote in Australia (and I guess in most western countries) and maybe we need to enfore it in India as well. We can't continue to have less than 60% voting in the cities (despite giving an option for void vote). This just can't be allowed to continue.
P.S. What will happen to LokParitran whose hope was firmly placed on higher voter turnout. We'll know tomorrow.
4 comments:
The main problem why most of the WEB Community thinks that JJ will win is because of a site called Rediff which was totally biased and away from the ground realities....
There was a High Degree of Anti incumbency among the middle and lower class which was missed totally by both Amma as well as few "elite" media
I guess that is true. Rediff painted a picture where every other person was one whose loyalty changed from DMK to ADMK after Amma's post-tsunami relief work.
Coming to 2004 Lok Sabha elections, all were of the opinion that BJP is going to win... In fact What they predicted was correct, if you take Andhra and Tamil Nadu out of the results and analyse.... The north Indian media can never understand the South Indian politics (kerala, AP and TN)....
And in TN also, no one predicted that DMK will sweep 40/40......
Before blaming the polls (opinion and exit) as the the accuract, You should see that it is the RULING PARTY WHICH HAS TO BE CAUTIOUS and not the opposition.... Opposition has won after opinion polls have shown a trend in favour of Ruling, but a RULING PARTY HAS NEVER WON WHEN THE OPINION POLL HAS FAVOURED THE OPPOSITION. The reason is simple.....
There are two kinds of anti-incubency 1. Against the CM(or PM) and 2. Against your MLA (or MP) who never turned up after the result....
Then first anti incubency alone comes out in the opinion poll, where as the second one comes as a shock for the ruling party on the day of counting. It was for this reason, KK received a shock in 2001 and Vajpayee (and most of the India) in 2004.
Polls taken during March 15 showed a trend favouring JJ. How did the trend change by Apr 30. The reason is very simple. "Even though I am satisfied with CM, I do not want to vote for this MLA" is the popular opinion. This exactly is the reason why KK lost in 2001 and KK in 2006
For other points, you can see here
http://doctorbruno.blogspot.com/2006/05/opinion-and-exit-polls.html
I am sure Dr.Bruno is right. I think locally, each MLA must be more visible and vocal about his constituency's needs. I am not sure if it is a practice followed in our country but each elected member must have an office where he is accessible by his electorate. he can't hope to represent his ppl sitting in MLA hostel. Right?
Post a Comment